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Dutch disease in Russia
Havelka, Robert ; Horváth, Roman (advisor) ; Kukačka, Jiří (referee)
Dutch disease in Russia Robert Havelka Abstract Dutch Disease offers formal explanation to the so-called "Resource curse". Detection of Dutch Disease is divided into individual symptoms. We study the case of Russia, i.e. country which possesses significant reserves of natural resources. Long-term relationship between oil price and Russian real exchange rate was not established (1st symptom), but we find evidence of growth and fall of overall wage level in Russia as predicted by Dutch Disease (2nd symptom). We have been able to find statistically significant long-term relationship between Russian GDP, oil price and crude oil export volumes (3rd symptom). Oil price is found to have positive impact on the output of manufacturing sector, which implies Russian economy is to even larger extent vulnerable to oil price shocks. Last link is in direct contradiction with predictions of our model, but it is likely the result of Russian manufacturing sector not being entirely "non-oil", or that some manufacturing sub-sectors are not producing tradable goods. JEL Classication F30, P28, Q30 Keywords Dutch disease, Russia, exchange rate Author's e-mail robberthz.cz@gmail.com Supervisor's e-mail roman.horvath@gmail.com
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Holandská nemoc na příladu Ruské federace
Michalová, Monika
Michalová, M. The Dutch disease in the Russian Federation. Bachelor thesis. Brno: Mendel University, 20016. This bachelor thesis is focused on the Dutch disease factor occurring in the Russian economy. The main objective is to analyse whether the Russian economy suffers from some of the Dutch disease assumptions based on the econometric model. The main data of each factor affecting the GDP since 2000 to 2014 will be assessed. The major sectors and effects will be explained based on economic theory and the Dutch disease model. The specific results of the individual factors will be examined as well as the evaluation of the particular situation in the Russian economy.
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Dutch disease Case of Norway
Kňazovická, Kristína
Kňazovická, K. Dutch Disease: Case of Norway. Bachelor Thesis. Brno: Mendel University, 2016. The Bachelor Thesis investigates the effect of the economic phenomena, Dutch Disease, on the overall economy of Norway, as well as on the economic performance of the selected regions. Firstly, it introduces the concept of the disease, its symptoms, possible treatments and outlines the macroeconomic indicators and symptoms, which help in the identification of the disease. Moreover, it offers a descriptive account of regions, their main activities and productivity, employment and wages in observed petroleum, manufacturing and tertiary sector of the economy. In the empirical part, it examines, whether the symptoms are present through the time series regression, which is based on the OLS method. Furthermore, it inspects the relationship between particular variables to the global oil price, which may indicate the dependency on the oil and gas segment. The thesis found out, that the Norway might not suffer from the Dutch Disease, possibly due to their tight fiscal policy and foundation of the Government Pension Fund Global.
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Holandská choroba v ekonomike Saudskej Arábie
Horváth, Martin
Horváth, M. Dutch disease in the economy of Saudi Arabia. Bachelor thesis. Brno: Mendel University, 2018. The bachelor thesis focuses on the occurrence of Dutch disease in Saudi Arabia's economy. By using examples of other countries in which the Dutch disease has occurred in the past, basic terms are summarized and common principles discussed. The goal of the bachelor thesis is econometric testing of Dutch disease impacts in the economy of Saudi Arabia. For this purpose, the economy of Saudi Arabia was briefly described, including the development of significant economic indicators. The development of the economy and the results of the tests were evaluated with respect to the general economic theory and the theory of Dutch disease.
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Economic change in Russia: Oil dependency
Krupa, Mikuláš ; Kučerová, Irah (advisor) ; Parízek, Michal (referee)
This thesis concentrates on the case of Russian economy and assessment of its dependence on oil. Russia is often cited as an example of country suffering from resource curse as its natural wealth forms significant share of country's exports and revenues. Thesis will first concentrate on factors determining current state of Russian economy. Presence of the symptoms of Dutch disease in the Russian economy will be studied using the Vector error correction model (VECM) applied on the real effective exchange rate of country (REER). Thesis will also contain an assessment of Russian institutional environment to check for other symptoms of resource curse theory. Analysis of latest federal budget will be used to evaluate the sustainability of Russian federal finances. The thesis is concluded by discussion of results and possible paths of future development of Russian economy.
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The Structural Change in the Economy of the United Mexican States
Matzek, Jan ; Sejkora, Jiří (advisor) ; Hasík, Gabriel (referee)
The aim of this paper is to identify and asses the structural change in the economy of the United Mexican States in the period from 1940 until the early 2000s. The data analysis is focused on identifying the trends in the context of Lewis' dual economy model, Kaldor's law, Dutch disease and the natural resources course. Using linear regression, we prove Kaldors' hypothesis on the relation between the growth of the manufacturing sector and the economy as such in the context of Mexico. Furthermore, trends consistent with Lewis' dual economy model are identified. The syndromes of Dutch disease in Mexico and its negative effects on non-mining sectors are described and analyzed.
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Occurrence of the Dutch Disease in the Azerbaijani economy
Valiyev, Asim ; Sejkora, Jiří (advisor) ; Sankot, Ondřej (referee)
This bachelor thesis focuses on the presence of Dutch Disease in the Azerbaijani economy. The substance of the thesis is the determination of, whether the Azerbaijani economy is showing the signs of the Dutch Disease and if necessary, to outline measures to mitigate the negative consequences of this disease. This thesis focuses on the symptoms of Dutch Disease, which include real exchange rate appreciation, slower manufacturing growth, faster service sector growth and higher overall wages. The largest part is dedicated to the evaluation whether above mentioned symptoms have direct context with extreme dependence of Azerbaijani economy on oil exports.
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Dutch disease in Russia
Havelka, Robert ; Horváth, Roman (advisor) ; Kukačka, Jiří (referee)
Dutch disease in Russia Robert Havelka Abstract Dutch Disease offers formal explanation to the so-called "Resource curse". Detection of Dutch Disease is divided into individual symptoms. We study the case of Russia, i.e. country which possesses significant reserves of natural resources. Long-term relationship between oil price and Russian real exchange rate was not established (1st symptom), but we find evidence of growth and fall of overall wage level in Russia as predicted by Dutch Disease (2nd symptom). We have been able to find statistically significant long-term relationship between Russian GDP, oil price and crude oil export volumes (3rd symptom). Oil price is found to have positive impact on the output of manufacturing sector, which implies Russian economy is to even larger extent vulnerable to oil price shocks. Last link is in direct contradiction with predictions of our model, but it is likely the result of Russian manufacturing sector not being entirely "non-oil", or that some manufacturing sub-sectors are not producing tradable goods. JEL Classication F30, P28, Q30 Keywords Dutch disease, Russia, exchange rate Author's e-mail robberthz.cz@gmail.com Supervisor's e-mail roman.horvath@gmail.com
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Development of the Bolivian economy in the context of government policy and foreign trade
Dudzich, Viktar ; Šíma, Ondřej (advisor) ; Gevorgyan, Kristine (referee)
This thesis analyzes the development of the Bolivian economy during the presidency of Evo Morales and especially the effects of state legislative measures on different sectors of the economy in Bolivia. The influence of historical, political and social factors on the economic development of Bolivia is examined in this thesis. There are descriptions of the industrial and financial sectors, foreign trade, state social policy, key risks and forecasts about the development of the Bolivian economy. Emphasis is also placed on the interconnections between politics, economy and social sphere.
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Curse or Blessing: natural resources and economic growth - comparison of the development of Botswana, Nigeria, Norway and Canada in early 21st century
Zubíková, Adéla ; Chytil, Zdeněk (advisor) ; Zeman, Karel (referee)
This thesis seeks to verify the concept of so-called resource curse at the beginning of the new millennium. The theoretical part defines the symptoms of the alleged curse, curse transmission channels and criticism of the concept. Compared to other studies dealing with the theme of the resource curse this work is not focused on just one transmission channel. The practical part verifies several hypotheses established by comparing research papers on impacts of natural resources. The validity of the Prebisch-Singer hypothesis, Dutch disease symptoms and a negative impact on political institutions (inclination toward authoritarianism, high level of corruption, high government spending, low efficiency of economic and political decision-making and low investment in education) is verified. For the analysis have been selected two African countries (Nigeria and Botswana) and two advanced countries (Canada and Norway). The last part of this thesis provides policy implications. The results confirm the Prebisch-Singer hypothesis for selected commodities in the long term and some of the symptoms of Dutch disease at the beginning of the new millennium. Hypotheses regarding the impact on the political institutions have not been confirmed, since the results varied across the countries. The high vulnerability of the countries to movements in commodity prices was found.
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